Hawkish hike absorbed; SOL leads a muted rebound

What happened

Wednesday’s FOMC voted 12–0 to lift the funds target by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%. The statement and SEPs kept a hawkish tilt — median dots still point to another hike on the 2026 path. Into early Thursday Zurich time, Coinbase 24h stats put BTC near $76.6k after a low at $74.9k and a high at $76.7k; ETH near $2,449 after a $2,366–$2,452 range; SOL near $100 after a $96–$100 range. Fear & Greed printed Neutral at 50 (down from 51 yesterday, well below last week’s 69 Greed). Listed crypto proxies stayed soft on Fed day: COIN closed about $164.51 (−4.4%), with HOOD and MSTR also down.

What it means

The quarter point was already in the price. The lasting headwind is opportunity cost — cash and short Treasuries still pay while BTC and ETH do not — and the Clarity failure earlier in the week already did the heavier crypto equity damage. A muted rebound after the print is consistent with de-risked positioning, not with a fresh risk-on regime. COIN and peers remain the cleaner expression of regulatory + rate pressure.

Chart and trend facts

BTC defended $75k through the hawkish print and ETF outflow noise. ETH and SOL outperformed on the first bounce. No weekly flip claim is made here — structure is still a post-Clarity, post-hike range, not a confirmed trend day.

What happened

On the Coinbase 24h window into Thursday morning, SOL was the relative leader at about $100.11 (+3.3% from the $96.88 open), ETH about $2,449 (+2.3%), and BTC about $76,563 (+1.2%). That order — alts first, BTC steadier — fits a short-covering bounce after Tuesday’s Clarity shock and Wednesday’s policy print, not a broad breakout. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows were still an outflow story into the decision window, which kept a lid on follow-through.

What it means

Relative strength in SOL and ETH can look inviting after two soft sessions, but the macro regime did not flip bullish overnight. Higher-for-longer dots raise the hurdle for non-yielding risk. Treat outperformance as rotation inside a pressured tape, not as permission to size up without structure.

Chart and trend facts

SOL last ~$100 · 24h open $96.88 · high $100.16 · low $96
BTC last ~$76.6k · range $74.9k–$76.7k · floor held
ETH last ~$2,449 · range $2,366–$2,452
Fear & Greed 50 Neutral

SOL daily structure shows a bounce off the post-Clarity soft patch, still well below early-September highs. Watch whether strength holds above the round $100 handle or fades back into the mid-$90s with BTC back toward $75k.